Just when rumors that some agreement on the desire to achieve a major breakthrough in the political north by President Jonathan through the Northern Political Elders Forum were gaining some credibility, the arrest and interrogation of two of the officials of the Forum appear to have thrown spanners in the works. The two officials were reportedly arrested and interrogated, then released, on suspicions that they were part of a conspiracy to poison President Goodluck Jonathan at a secret meeting a few weeks ago. No sooner were the two arrested, than chieftains of the Forum, including Malam Adamu Ciroma himself, started demanding for their release, and there were widespread insinuations that the arrests had heavy political undertones, particularly given the failure of the talks between Jonathan and the Forum to make any major headway. After the release of the two officers, they denied any knowledge or involvement in the alleged plot to poison President Jonathan before or after the elections.
The arrest of these two key officials of the Northern Political Elders Forum would suggest that relations between the Forum and the President Jonathan Camp have irretrievably broken down, unless the security agencies can prove that there are grounds to sustain the investigations, and the leadership of the Forum will accept that the law must take its course, and that the arrest and investigation of the two officers has nothing to do with politics. The President has also denied having anything to do with the arrest of the two officials, and has re-stated his commitment to pursuing the talks to a fruitful conclusion. The President’s spokesman maintains that their camp is still waiting for the response of the Elders Forum, especially since the President’s visit to the residence of Malam Adamu Ciroma was meant to underline the seriousness with which the Jonathan camp views the dialogue.
Now that these arrests appear to be putting the negotiations under some serious strain, it would be interesting to see what their outcomes will be. The Elders Forum was the child of necessity, an assemblage of a few leaders, the vast majority of whom are major players in the PDP, and many of them nominees of northern aspirants for a consensus candidate from the North to challenge Jonathan at the PDP Convention. Without these northern aspirants, Generals Babangida and Aliyu Gusau, Atiku Abubakar and Governor Saraki, it is difficult to imagine that the Elders Forum would have made any impact at all. They were also important only because the aspirants themselves accorded them some recognition and legitimacy in terms of their mandates. They enjoyed a measure of recognition and support from mainstream PDP North, and tapped into a huge reservoir of northern sentiment over the zoning and rotation issue. In the end, their project failed woefully, and the candidate they clothed with the garb of a northern candidate was humiliated in Eagle Square with the active collaboration of many northern Governors. So badly was Atiku defeated with northern support that he failed to get up to 100 delegates from the entire Southern States to vote for him. In a way, therefore, if there was a consensus candidate, it was President Jonathan who the Convention showed clearly is the Southern Consensus Candidate. And he did not even have a Southern Political Elders Forum to engineer his victory.
The Elders Forum made two major mistakes. One was its failure to involve other political blocs outside the north in its project, and build strategic alliances and support, or, at the very least, reduce the awesome power of Southern Governors and other PDP chieftains in southern States. This resulted in the fatal isolation of its candidate, and exposed the PDP north to an accustomed image of going it alone. Their candidate paid dearly for this, and his failure was seen as the triumph of the South over the North, an event without a precedent in Nigerian history.
The second major mistake of the Elders Forum was its assumption that PDP Northern Governors were either dispensable, or inherently loyal to a northern project. Incredibly, persons who have had a very rich experience in the murky waters of Nigerian politics, and who should know that when elections are around the corner, the powers of the Presidency to whip Governors into line using many intimidating tactics is unsurpassed, simply thought Governors will respect some symbolic sentiment around a northern interest, when their own political fortunes and personal comforts are threatened by it. In the end, a few northern Governors made nonsense of the Elders Forum’s project, and showed the north and the nation where power truly lies in the north.
Many people would have thought that with the humiliating defeat of Atiku Abubakar and the Elders Forum’s project, these elderly gentlemen will close shop and retire altogether from the business of creating any more consensus. However, Nigerian politicians never close shop. When they do, they generally move to the next street to open another one. Or they simple change commodities they sell, in the same shop.
Our Elders Forum converted itself into a permanent body and began discussions with President Jonathan, even if, as the media wants Nigerians to believe, reluctantly. The impression being created is that President Jonathan is so desperate to reduce northern hostility against his candidature that he is turning to the Elders’ Forum for solution. Although the talks between Jonathan and the Forum were anything but sincere, given the manner both sides freely used the media to undermine each other’s positions, they apparently got stuck around the issue of zoning and rotation, an issue long settled and buried by the humiliation of both Atiku and the Elders by the PDP.
A few people with some residue of respect for the elders would have advised them against engaging President Jonathan in the first place. Even given the valid argument that politics does not accept closing all doors to dialogue, a more valid question would be what possible good will come of the talks. The Elders cannot deliver the north to Jonathan. Jonathan has problems with the north because he has offended a vast majority of simple folks who believe in the value of honor and respect for rules; not because he has fallen out with some PDP elders in Abuja. Northern PDP Governors may be able to help Jonathan more than the Elders, but they have many problems of their own.
If the Northern Elders Political Forum have any political clout, and a desire to place their considerable experience at the service of the North, they will be well advised to explore options which will create one consensus candidate from among General Buhari, Nuhu Ribadu and Ibrahim Shekarau. Millions of northerners will welcome a resolution of the crisis which faces the north in having three major contenders against one from the south, and one who has more muscle and resources than all of them put together. If they cannot direct their energies in this direction, it will do them a world of good to stay away from the political terrain altogether.
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