Since the mass and spontaneous uprising of people across North Africa and the Middle East against their leaders, the world has suddenly become a much smaller place. Neither physical distance nor the peculiarities of issues in dispute matter anymore. What has become clear to all leaders and citizens is that an uprising is both imminent and inevitable in all countries where political rights are suppressed; where corruption has become endemic; and where people’s patience and tolerance has been taken for granted by their leaders. There is a raging debate here in Nigeria whether an uprising is possible or necessary, in the event of a widespread dispute over the results of the forthcoming elections.
There are very disturbing signs that violent acts around the elections will get worse as we move nearer the polling days. No stronger evidence is needed for this than the demand by the leadership of the PDP that General Muhammadu Buhari, the leader and presidential aspirant of the CPC be disqualified by INEC for instigating violence among his supporters against the President, when he visited Gombe State. In point of fact, there have been many such incidents across a wide spectrum of the campaign trail, and both sides have accused each other of instigating violence. If citizens can throw stones and other missiles against the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, and tear down his billboards and posters with impunity, it is time to begin to worry about the psychological disposition of many Nigerians towards our leaders and the forthcoming elections. Many Governors and other candidates now cannot venture into some areas within their constituencies, owing to threats or actual violence which has been meted out to them. The vast majority of those who engage in these violent acts are young people. Whether they are merely hired to perform these acts, or are so drugged that they can take huge risks by stoning the President, Governors and other candidates, or are motivated by such blind dislike for these candidates; the truth of the matter is that their actions give the nation serious cause to worry about its future. Young people who take to the streets to tear down billboards and posters; to battle other opposing gangs and lose lives and limbs; who stone leaders and create no-go areas for many of them unless they are accompanied by a whole army of security men, are not far from taking up arms against the authority in the event that they feel more gravely aggrieved.
Our young people see and hear and admire what happens in Tunisia, in Algeria, in Libya and Egypt, and while many Nigerians think events there cannot be replicated here, Nigerians need to pay attention to the lessons which our own young people are drawing from them. Culturally and politically, Nigeria differs substantially from North Africa; yet a major dispute around elections or disputed results will have a devastating effect on our country’s peace and unity. Our young people may be tempted to think that a massive protest against disputed results will result in a just and fair settlement, the way we saw leaders flee or resign in some parts of Africa. They may even think that sustained violence may redness electoral grievances. They may be tragically wrong, but the nation will have to pay a huge price to prove them wrong.
Politicians are sowing seeds of genuine conflict centered around regions and religion. A disputed result is likely to pitch voters against a government. In Nigeria, it is also likely to pitch voters against voters. The dangerous ethnic and religious dimensions of the current campaigns, and the heated rhetoric which is already galvanizing many young people to engage in violent acts may draw the battle-lines in a protracted civil unrest, when citizens decide to exact revenge where they feel shortchanged; or where others feel they have to protect and defend what they have won. Since the leadership is part and parcel of these disputes, its actions are bound to be part of the problems, not solutions.
There is still time to take a step back and limit the damage which the image of victory by young people in other lands has created in the minds of our young people, and the real difficulties which will arise in the event of a widely-disputed election result. The solution, of course lies in ensuring that the elections are free, fair and widely accepted. But we need to lower the current levels of violence, because no free and fair election takes place in a violent environment.
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