After the big rally held at Minna last week Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, C.P.C’s Presidential candidate paid a well-publicized visit to the home of General Badamasi Babangida. General Babangida reportedly warmly welcomed General Buhari, and the two of them spent a long time together in what was seen as a very friendly meeting. When General Buhari left, he was reported to look very happy indeed. People who make it their business to speculate have since assumed that for two people like Babangida and Buhari, whose history and current politics is anything but intimate and friendly to have been happy in others’ company for that long, some political deal must be in the offing. In fact, many people have assumed that Buhari has finally put aside his long-held distance from Babangida to reach out to him for support; and that Babangida has obliged. Alas, the General Buhari camp now says no deal was discussed or struck; and General Babangida’s people are accusing General Buhari’s people of misleading Buhari and the nation. There have been no repudiation of these reports so far, so they must be assumed to be genuine.
It is no secret that General Buhari’s current popularity could be strengthened by some dramatic and strategic linkages with some powerful forces, especially in the North. The provisional figures for registered voters show clearly that the North holds the key to the Presidency; but the near –absence of any solid support for the CPC in the South East and South-South will mean that for Buhari to stop President Jonathan winning an outright victory in the first round in April, he will need to capture almost the entire north. The South-West has its own candidate in Ribadu, so it is more likely to play the spoiler for Buhari. The South East is up for grabs. Without a significant candidate or party, it can swing either way; but it is more likely to swing in the direction of big money and the prospect of a 2015 Presidency. Even the A.C.N can play a role in supporting Buhari, if the right stimulus is directed at it, in spite of its anger at the serial disappointments by Buhari.
It is also widely known that General Babangida still nurses the desire to remain relevant and central to Nigerian politics. Although he suffered the humiliating setback of losing to Atiku as a consensus candidate, he appears to have regained some ground in the manner he attempted to play the statesmen. It is on record that he congratulated President Goodluck Jonathan. Some of his key allies are playing prominent roles in Jonathan’s campaign team. He has kept faith with the Northern Political Elders Forum, lending a quiet presence and muscle behind it as a negotiating asset. In short, Babangida has been trying to walk on both sides of the street. He wants to be seen as a Northern leader, but also as a PDP statesman who is not averse to sacrificing northern interests for the PDP. If Babangida can fix a Buhari victory, he would have written the last few pages in his life history as a Northern hero.
Buhari needs Babangida to help him reach out to those areas where he and Pastor Bakare cannot reach; but he does not want to be seen openly courting him. Babangida wants to be seen as useful even to a possible Buhari Presidency, but is frustrated by Buhari’s inner circle who do not trust him. The two have drifted so far apart for so long that even a one-on-one rapprochement is becoming difficult. But the real problem is far bigger than their lieutenants. General Buhari believes he can win the Presidency on the CPC’s platform alone, and is not, at this late stage, planning on any strategic alliances. General Babangida would love to be the one to decide whether it is Buhari or Jonathan who becomes the next President, but he does not hold all the aces.
Both supporters of the two Generals are likely to be bitterly disappointed. Those who have expected that the Northern Elders Political Forum, together with the three or four competitors for the Consensus Candidate could knock together a Plan ‘B’ for the North that will ensure a successful northern Presidency are also disappointed. There is very little chance now that a northern strategy involving Buhari, Babangida and some northern elders could be worked out to foreclose an outright loss to Jonathan in the first round. There is a strand of opinion that the entire north could throw its weight behind Nuhu Ribadu, and with a certain rock solid support from the South West, a northerner could become President. But the foundations for this strategy are weak because in spite of its impressive recent in-roads into minority North, the ACN is severely limited in terms of its strength; and the PDP is still a factor in the South West.
Still, there will be many in the north who will continue to wish that politicians from the zone will rise to the occasion and prevent a Jonathan victory. Certainly, ordinary men and women from the North have indicated their willingness to vote for a President of their choice in April by turning out in millions to register. And they will vote in millions. The candidate who will get most of their votes is one who conserves and expands his political assets, and limits his weaknesses. Right now, it appears that both Buhari and Jonathan have serious problems with large chunks of the voting population in the North and South. To win against each other, they need to build strategic bridges, if they have the time, the resources and above all, the political wisdom to recognize that no one can become a Nigerian President through a free and fair election unless significant majorities from all parts of the country say so.
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