AND FINALLY

Finally, the Northern Political Elders Forum has told President Goodluck Jonathan that it will not support his bid for the Presidency, after months of meetings and speculations. When it did this, it chose to do it together with another self-appointed leaders of the Igbo people under the name of the Igbo Political forum, which itself also said it has withdrawn its support for the President. Both groups say that President Jonathan’s attitude and approach to them throughout their talks and negotiations with him were deceptive, principally because he refused to give a definitive commitment on the issue of his exit in 2015, and which zone the presidency will shift to after his tenure. The two groups have told President Jonathan that he is on his own as far as the North and East are concerned.

          The sticking point as far as the Jonathan and the Northern Political Elders Forum is concerned has always been his decision to ignore the zoning and rotation formula of the PDP, and the Elders’ insistence that the Presidency must remain in the north until 2015. Many Nigerians have asked the simple question over the value of the talks, once the zoning and rotation issue was settled by Jonathan’s resounding victory over the elders’ consensus candidate, Atiku Abubakar at the PDP National Convention. It has been clear from that point that the zoning principle was dead and buried, at least by President Jonathan and his supporters. So it made very little sense to discuss with a man who you accuse of taking what does not belong to him, and is sitting comfortably on it.

          Then the talks moved on to President Jonathan’s promise to serve for only one term. Politicians being the opportunists that they will always be, the Elders Forum then agreed to meet with Jonathan to see whether he will  guarantee that the Presidency returns to the north when he finishes with it in 2015 as he promised. The President refused to give that guarantee, because the South East also wanted a shot at the presidency in 2015. If he had promised the north that he can guarantee that it has the presidency back in 2015, he would have substantially alienated the South East. When he failed to give this guarantee either to the North or East, both their self-appointed leaders dismissed him as insincere.

          But in point of fact, President Jonathan is not in a position to give either the North or the East any guarantees. No President, no matter how powerful, can guarantee that a specific region will produce a PDP candidate in 2015. Certainly if Jonathan were to win the forthcoming elections, and, as he promised, he will serve for only one term, he will be in no position to guarantee who his successor will be, or from what zone. It will be even more surprising if anyone will believe him, particular among northern PDP leaders who feel his sense of betrayal most acutely, having taken it upon themselves to fight him over it. It will amount to asking President Jonathan to give the north what he does not, and cannot have; when he is also accused of taking from it what rightly belongs to it.   

          Both the Northern Political Elders Forum and President Jonathan therefore went through the motion of discussing an issue they knew very well had a futile and unproductive ending. They knew he will never publicly or secretly promise the north a presidency in 2015. He knew they will not abandon their insistence that the zoning principle is sacrosanct, and they will commit political suicide if they were to turn around and endorse him. President Jonathan is also cognizant of the paperweight influence of the Northern Elders, since he trounced their much-touted consensus candidate. The Elders, being experienced politicians, also knew all along that President Jonathan’s people know very well that real power in the PDP north lies with the Governors, and an endorsement by the Elders will only have a symbolic effect. In the end, neither President Jonathan nor the Elders got what they wanted, beyond a clever use of the media to show Nigerians that as experienced politicians, they place a premium on dialogue.    

          As for the Igbo Political Forum, a collection of Igbo politicians who are still nursing fresh wounds from recent altercations within the PDP in which they lost out, their purported withdrawal of support from President Jonathan will have even less of an effect in terms of his  chances in the East. Both the Northern Political Elders Forum and the Igbo Political Forum were angling for the same concession from President Jonathan, which is a public commitment to hand over the PDP Presidential ticket to one of them. Both groups in fact argue that they are now convinced that Jonathan will not go in 2015, and his refusal to state whether the north or East will have the slot after him indicates an unacceptable level of insincerity. The Igbo Political Forum also knows that it has virtually no clout to make a difference in the South-East, which is substantially up for grabs since it has neither a major party or candidate in contention in the elections. If Jonathan had promised the North a presidency in 2015, the Igbo Forum would have cried to the high heavens, and would count the north among its enemies. If Jonathan had promised the South East the Presidency in 2015, the northern elders would have pitched their tents again the South East for receiving stolen goods.  

          Now that Jonathan has been told that he has no support from a few northern PDP elders and a few Igbo politicians, he will be well advised to concentrate on convincing genuine northern and Igbo voters why they should vote for him. The end of these dubious talks will also be a relief to many northerners, who resented the idea that a few self-appointed elders can treat the region as if it is their property to give to President Jonathan.. The withdrawal of the support for Jonathan by a few Igbo politicians who have presumed to speak for an entire region where PDP Governors have only a marginal control of affairs will also bring an end to a farce which Jonathan’s people knew all along was being played out by politicians who have been schemed out of PDP affairs.

          Now that self-appointed politicians from the North and East have drawn the curtains on attempts to deliver entire regions to selected candidates, perhaps the political terrain will be more even. Voters, including those with sympathy for the PDP will feel freer to vote candidates of their own choice. President Jonathan will now have to speak directly to ordinary voters from the North and East, rather than through a conclave of party elders who are standing between him and them. Other Nigerians from Parties who have no Elders Forum to negotiate their future will also have their say in terms of which candidates they vote for. This is the beauty of the democratic process. It is the individual voter who decides the leaders, not a small, self-appointed group who chooses for him.