With just a few days to go to the first elections which will determine who our next Senators and Members of the House of Representatives will be, the three Presidential Candidates of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) General Muhammadu Buhari, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Malam Ibrahim Shekarau; and the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Malam Nuhu Ribadu are reported to be engaged in talks to explore the possibility of agreeing that one of them may get the nod from the two others to stand against Jonathan as a northern consensus candidate. Many Nigerians have given up on the idea that the three, either on their own, or through the facilitation of some powerful northern-based pressure groups, could agree on one of them to take up the challenge of defeating President Jonathan on April 9th. Yet there are million more northerners who, perhaps naively, hope that this can happen, and are fervently praying and encouraging them to succeed. The next day or two will reveal whether they do succeed, but the realities on the ground clearly show that they are involved in an impossible task.
The idea of a consensus candidate from the four northern PDP members was originally a PDP idea, motivated by the indignation and sense of betrayal felt by many northern political elite that President Jonathan had no business contesting for the Presidency in 2011 because it is still the unexpended turn of the north to the slot until 2015. It is now history that the efforts of the four, through a political contraption called Northern Elders Political Forum, produced former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as a consensus candidate. He took up President Jonathan, and was humiliatingly trounced, largely with the active support of northern PDP governors. The fallout from the PDP quarrels over the zoning and rotation principle gave the C.P.C and the ACN a massive boost in many parts of the country, but principally in the north.
Many people expected that the nation would have heard the last of consensus, or zoning, or even of the chances of the PDP to win the presidency, given the damage it seemed to have inflicted upon itself. All three of the major parties which could have seriously challenged the PDP fielded northern candidates with heavy liabilities, and further weakened the chances of the north to produce a candidate or a strategy guaranteed to defeat Jonathan. The CPC’s sole significant asset is General Muhammadu Buhari and his phenomenal following; but it suffers from his larger-than-life domination of his Party, and the stranglehold of a few of his trusted lieutenants over him. The Party failed to successfully avail itself of an excellent opportunity to enter into a strategic electoral alliance with the ACN, largely because it apparently believes it can win the presidency on its own.
The ANPP suffered from massive depletion of former members, and of severe internal wranglings among its major financiers such as Governors, such that its only asset today is Malam Ibrahim Shekarau. He, and only he, can decide what the Party does, and he has not indicated a willingness to mend fences with General Buhari and yield any grounds to him. Malam Nuhu Ribadu is a passenger on someone else’s vehicle, and cannot go further or in a different direction than the owner of the vehicle decides. He is a good candidate and a serious Nigerian who represents a fresh face in Nigerian politics, but he is little more than an errand boy to Chief Bola Tinubu. Chief Tinubu and his advisers have got their fingers burnt times without number in their bid to strike some form of electoral arrangement between their party, the ACN and the CPC. It will be difficult to see how this party, not Malam Ribadu, unless he renounces his membership of the ACN and his candidature, can now collapse itself into the ACN. It is also difficult to see how Malam Shekarau can swallow his pride and massive loss of resources by yielding the ground to Buhari. What will be most impossible of all will be to see Buhari concede his chances to either Shekarau or Ribadu.
These, in a way, are what these talks are all about. Of course, they are also significant public relations stunts, because none of the three candidates wants to be seen as shunning an opportunity to help the north defeat Jonathan. Still, those who say that nothing is impossible in Nigerian politics will continue to hope. There are suggestions that two parties may encourage their members to vote en-mass for candidates of one of the Parties in the Senatorial and House of Representatives elections. If the results show a resounding success by a party other than the PDP, the voting public may be swayed to vote for a non-PDP Presidential candidate; one among the three who are now talking. But which one; and at what cost? If, for the sake of argument, the ANPP and ACN support Buhari’s bid for the Presidency by throwing their weight behind his party in the national legislative elections, and he either wins the presidential contest out-rightly or secures a run-off opportunity, they may demand massive, reciprocal concessions at the Gubernatorial and State Assembly elections. If they do, the nation could conceivably end up with a hybrid national assembly, either a CPC or PDP presidency, and State Governors who come from many different parties. This will have a serious implication for the long-term sustenance of an electoral strategy, which may be difficult to translate into governance.
But all these are mere speculations that do not even take cognizance of the fact that the PDP is not sitting idly bye to see an alliance defeat it. The PDP is taking comfort from the near certainty that these talks on consensus will also fail. The Party will capitalize on the fact that the presidential elections will almost certainly involve one major candidate from the south and three from the north, who will certainly split the region. They will expect that the worst that can happen is a run-off between Jonathan and another northern candidate, but the PDP will do everything possible, and hopefully legal, to prevent a run-off, particularly with Buhari.
At this late hour in the campaigns, there are people who still think a deal can be struck to produce a northern candidate against Jonathan. This lingering and sentimental yearning is self-defeating for a north which, even with three candidates, can win against Jonathan, and all this talk about consensus is simply diverting energy and attention from the need for more hardwork and improvements of political linkages with the south. The talk about consensus is a painful reminder that all three northern candidates are largely limited to the north. Even Ribadu’s much-touted South-West support is rooted in the desire of the ACN to make inroads into the north, and Ribadu is little more than an instrument in that direction.
It is ordinary voters who will choose the next Nigerian president. Many will vote for candidates; or tribe; or religion; or personality. So long as everyone’s’ votes count, Nigerians will live under the leadership of a validly-elected leader. They have nothing to fear over who is validly elected, provided the elections are not rigged. Nigerians, including those from the north, should be allowed to choose their leaders freely. They can decide for themselves. If northern politicians make it impossible for one of them to be the next president, northerners should not be scared that a southern presidency will be a disaster for the north. If other Nigerians vote with them and produce a northern president, they should not be made to feel that a northern president will only implement a northern agenda. A consensus candidate may be good for politicians, but may not be good for other Nigerian.
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