“Dogs do not
actually prefer bones to meat;it is just that nobody gives them meat.” Akan
proverb.
2014 will be critical in shaping
Nigerian politics in the next decade. A combination of significant
political developments, widespread dissatisfaction with management of the
economy and the failure to defeat an increasingly localized but vicious insurgency
will provide opportunistic avenues for exploiting the weaknesses of the
democratic process, and the limitations of the administration. The elections in
2015 will be the major focus of much of the administration, and tensions will
rise as President Jonathan and his party take on a resurgent opposition that
shows a potential to cause a major upset . The following are some of the issues
and events that should be watched closely in view of their significance
for the nation’s future.
1.
President Jonathan.
Although he says he is yet to decide whether to run
for another term in 2015, it seems most likely that President Goodluck
Jonathan will be a candidate in the 2015 elections. Not to run again will be
interpreted as succumbing to pressures from the North, and this is likely to
trigger hostile reaction among his core supporters and possible violence.
The President himself and his close associates will worry over their fates and
fortunes without political power after 2015. This will be a major impetus for
him to run.
If he does run, it be on the platform of the PDP,
which is fragmenting and exposing deep geo-political divisions. His party is
already effectively a minority in the national legislature, and further
defections will weaken it and confine its main support to his
South-South zone and areas in the North where religious and ethnic pluralism
are played up with potentially-dangerous consequences.
President Jonathan will be hard put to sell a
candidature on solid achievements in management of the economy, reducing
corruption, tackling an insurgency or providing a strong personal leadership in
a nation expressing worrying doubts over its future. This will not stop him
from trying, but he may have to reinforce his poor record by exploiting smouldering
faultlines that will expose the nation to further threats to its security.
President Jonathan has a difficult choice to make, but it is most likely going
to be made for him by a powerful circle of Ministers, aides, political
godfathers and beneficiaries of a weak management capacity in the presidency.
2.
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
The PDP is likely to undergo further fragmentation and
more defections. It is unlikely to undergo the type of radical overhaul
in its leadership guaranteed to reduce or reverse its internal problems. It
will most likely provide President Jonathan with a ticket for 2015, and risk
further alienation of support from the North and parts of South East and South
South. The PDP will attempt to retain support through massive inducement of
opinion leaders in the North and South East, and through the intensification of
campaigns around faith and ethnicity. Its activities in many parts of the
country will be accompanied by increasing hostility and violence. Next year, PDP
will confront the real possibility that its dominance of the national political
landscape is over.
3.
The opposition (APC)
The political opposition will make further incursion
into PDP territory, but could be hurt by failure to manage sensitive
intra-party developments. It has lost valuable time in improving harmony within
the party, registering members and establishing lower-level structures.
Damaging quarrels involving factions of legacy parties could prevent emergence
of credible and unifying leaders and candidates at state and lower-level
structures. Unresolved issues arising from the manner defected nPDP governors
and other bigwigs are treated (or rewarded) will pose serious threats to party
cohesion and preparations for the 2015 elections. Sensitive issues such as
presidential and gubernatorial flag bearers will provide flashpoints that may
seriously damage the party’s chances. In 2014, APC will have to take some very
important decisions that will determine whether it defeats PDP, or it fritters
away a good opportunity to form governments in Abuja and state capitals.
4.
Judiciary
The judiciary will be dragged into some of the intense
political quarrels arising from the fragmentation and defections in the PDP.
The judiciary will have to rule on major issues over the status of defected
governors ad legislators, as well as hundreds of cases on intra-party disputes
in both the PDP and the opposition. The year 2014 will challenge the judiciary
to redeem its poor image among Nigerians. The manner it responds to the demands
for integrity and independence will substantially affect the build-up to 2015
elections, as well as the quality of the elections themselves.
5.
INEC
Virtually all preparations for the 2015 elections will
have to be concluded within 2014. INEC is facing a major crisis of credibility,
although its leadership claims that bad politicians are painting it worse than
it is. With the Anambra elections still afresh as a lower benchmark, one or two
key elections in 2014 will again test INEC's capacity to improve on its
performance. The nation has been alarmed at the hint that the insurgency in the
North East could threaten elections in the region in 2015. In 2014, INEC will
ask for, and receive most of the funds and other support it will need to
conduct the 2015. All its preparations will be very closely followed by the
nation and the international community.Violence will be a major factor in all
campaigns and elections.
6.
The Economy
The management of the economy is unlikely to see a
radical improvement in 2014. With elections in 2015, patronage and leakages in
the manner public finances are managed are likely to be more pronounced.
Revenues from sale of petroleum resources will remain high, but industry-scale
theft of crude will continue to deprive the nation of vital resources. Disputes
over lack of openness and transparency in the manner public resources are
managed will intensity, but it is unlikely that President Jonathan will raise
the current standards of accountability. Poverty, youth unemployment and
decaying infrastructure are unlikely to be substantially addressed.
7.
Corruption and crimes
President Jonathan has not shown a strong will to
fight corruption, and the general perception that too many of his closest
associates, advisers and Ministers are beyond reproach on suspicion of
corruption will deepen. The nation will watch how he responds to the scandal
involving the purchase of bullet-proof cars and other scandals around pensions,
petroleum subsidy and others. Anti-corruption agencies such as E.F.C.C. and
I.C.P.C. will be assessed in terms of their capacities to operate with
independence and integrity, rather than as political weapons to be deployed by
the President against political opponents and threats. In 2014, corruption will
assume a pride of place in campaigns for 2015 elections, and public funds will
be specifically targeted as election campaign funds are harvested.Violent crimes
such as kidnapping and armed robberies are likely to increase as policing
assets are stretched around political concerns.
8.
Legislature
The National Assembly will go through turmoil as the
changing political landscape is reflected in its membership and disposition.
PDP will find itself in increasingly defensive position as it loses legislators
to the opposition, and the legislature as a whole is likely to be more hostile
to the executive. With 2015 in the horizon, however, both arms will focus more
on saving political careers, making compromises and stocking-up on campaign
resources. The year 2014 will witness tension and stresses in the legislature
as legal battles rage on defections and careers, and opposition members,
seeking to flex muscles, take on colleagues from the PDP and the Presidency.
9.
Insecurity
The federal government is unlikely to bring an end of
the insurgency in the North East in 2014, going by current disposition and the
words of the President. Part of the nation is shocked and offended by the plan
to spend N2b in the region by the federal government in 2014 as its
contribution towards reviving the economy. Insurgents appear to retain capacity
to make spectacular attacks using porous borders and intimidated communities.
With little evidence of change in tactics or new strategies in the horizon, the
nation and the insurgency will continue to bleed in 2014. Other internal
security challenges may feed-off intense politicking and the exploitation of
ethno-religious faultlines to deepen, or re-emerge. In 2014, national security
will most likely be severely challenged.
10.
National Conference
The President appears bent on organizing a National
Conference in 2014. In spite of widespread suspicion and hostility to the idea,
most Nigerians will follow its deliberations and outcome with intense interest.
The political opposition is likely to scuttle efforts to create any legitimacy
in terms of representation or outcome of the Conference. The presidency may be
forced into organizing a forum involving largely hand-picked delegates who may
work towards a pre-determined goal. Even then, the Conference will suffer
setbacks if issues such as tenure elongation or review of revenue allocation
formular are tabled.
11.
The World Cup
Nigeria will participate in the World Cup in Brazil in
2014. Most Nigerians expect it to do well. While the Eagles' participation
lasts in the tournament ,it will give Nigerians one of those rare moments when
they are only Nigerians.
HAPPY NEW YEAR.
No comments:
Post a Comment