Jonathan: fight or flight

“Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his political life.” Jeremy Thorpe, 1962 

Psychologists describe a physiological reaction in response to perceived or actual harmful event, attack or threat as fight or flight. Evidently, the body instinctively prepares a specie to fight or flee when it perceives danger, a vital requirement for survival. Whether it fights or flees, the theory says that the specie is primed virtually automatically. This theory does not address the choice of submitting to the threat, presumably because the instinct is to fight for survival, or flee form the threat. Applied to the current comprehensive onslaught on President Jonathan by President Obasanjo, it will be safe to assume that the Jonathan camp is already responding to the instinct to do either of two things: fight back, or flee, which in this case, will amount to submission to the designs of Obasanjo. These, presumably, are to cripple Jonathan’s presidency and ambitions, and re-invent Obasanjo The Brave.

There is little point in going over the 18-page thesis which Obasanjo wrote on President Jonathan. Everything that can be said to press the point home that President Jonathan has no business being President today was said in that letter. To foreclose any attempt to sit on it, he made sure that it was splashed, not leaked, all over the world. He then roped in other leaders by name, in the event that one or two of them may be tempted to play peacemaker. It was not the type of letter you write on a whim, and some of the allegations made in it have no precedent anywhere. 

There must be few people involved in thinking through how President Jonathan should respond to Obasanjo. Okupe's invectives were to buy time, and the cosy breakfast in Nairobi was poor PR. The context of the damaging assault could not be worse than they were, and this will not make clear thinking any easier. Central Bank Governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi’s letter, itself also leaked, contained damning allegations of diversion of proceeds from sale of crude by the administration.  Governors from the opposition have been having running battles with the Coordinating Minister for the Economy over claims of missing funds and selective allocations based on partisan considerations. The PDP has just lost five of its governors to the opposition, and the damage in terms of mass defection which this may trigger has not even been tallied. The insurgency which will not be defeated keeps resurfacing with devastating effect. Allegations of corruption in the administration have become so commonplace that it has come be seen as the only growth sector of the economy. Speaker of the House of Representatives had pointedly said President Jonathan cannot, and does not want to fight corruption only a few days ago. Even without Obasanjo’s letter, things could not have been worse for President Jonathan. Obasanjo has written a new rule: a man is best hit when he is down. 

 So Obasanjo chooses to turn and twist the knife. Even if you will be charitable enough to say Obasanjo's letter was not dripping with malice, you have to ask yourself what he sought to achieve by it. It certainly could not be an advisory, although he pretends that it should be one. Hear his conclusion: ‘My last piece of advice is that you should learn the lesson of history and please do not take Nigeria and Nigerians for granted. Move away from the culture of denials, cover-ups and proxies and deal honestly, sincerely and transparently with Nigerians... Nigerians are no fools.’ Indeed, Nigerians are no fools. No one can levy the type of accusations and allegations against the President, including allegations that he is raising a death squad, and expect that Nigerians will be content when President Jonathan walks away from them and turns a new leaf to ‘regain the trust and confidence’. Obasanjo himself must have a very low appreciation of the intelligence of Nigerians, if he thinks telling Jonathan not to run in 2015, accusing him of deceit and condoning graft, subverting his party and raising killer squads against opponents will create a new man in our President. Obasanjo knows what he is doing, and we know what he is doing. His letter, to use a phrase, is a declaration of war, the type that takes no prisoners.

So how would Jonathan react? He could assume a sober and serious mien, and tell the nation that many of the issues which Obasanjo raised, ought to have been raised in a more statesmanly manner, but they represent issues which he is attempting to tackle seriously. He could dismiss the killer squad story politely as dangerous falsehood especially coming from someone like Obasanjo, and conclude by committing himself further to the fight against corruption, insecurity, and the goals of unity of his party. But that is hardly likely. Nigerians will not be content with a flight reaction, and Jonathan will find out sooner rather than later that the terrain is much narrower for a leader on a flight mode. How would he respond to demands that he renounces any ambition to run in 2015; to cancel his proposed dialogue/conference; and to distance himself from cronies and hangers-on who give his administration its character? Would Nigerians be content with a
dismissal of allegation that he is raising a killer squad with a wave of hand? No, running away by ignoring Obasanjo or putting a brave face over his damaging provocation will be a very bad option.

That leaves the fight option. Already Obasanjo says he anticipates a possible violent backlash. He boasts: ‘I have passed the stage of being flattered, intimidated, threatened, frightened, induced or bought... Death is the end of all human beings and it may come when God wills it to come. The harassment of my relations and friends and innuendo that they are coming from the Government security apparatus.... and which are possibly authorized or the work of overzealous aides... will be counter-productive. It is abuse of security apparatus.’ So Obasanjo expects a fight back, as well he should. A breakfast with President Jonathan in a hotel in Nairobi will not take the sting out of his comprehensive damage to Jonathan.

President Jonathan has only two choices really. Resign, now that Obasanjo says he has no moral, political or ethical basis for continuing in the office, or fight back. We can rule out the option of resigning almost entirely because a Jonathan out of power will expose himself and those around him to a horrendous inquisition over 101 questions relating to public funds, management of the nation’s economy and a lifetime of harassment. It will be even more unimaginable to accept to resign on the strength of a letter made public by a former mentor and godfather whose own cupboard is difficult to close for its skeletons.

So a fight back strategy can be expected which involves digging in and calling Obasanjo’s bluff. It could begin by asking security agents to interrogate Obasanjo over his claims that the President is raising a killer squad. He has to do this because an allegation of this nature cannot be reconciled away. Obasanjo  will be challenged by investigation: either he is lying or he is telling the nation an alarming truth. With the paraphanelia of state  security at Jonathan's disposal to say Obasanjo lied, this may leave Obasanjo at a slight disadvantage with only God as his witness. If he reveals more, he could be accused of telling more lies, subversion and threatening national security. If he does not, the accusation of lying will be more credibly made. While this attempt to discredit Obasanjo is being made, Jonathan could explore the options of firing ministers whose fingers are soiled; cronies and corridor-walkers who give his administration its odour; chairman and party officials who are wrecking his party; and clan members who have taken up all the seats around him and are making Ijaws very unpopular. Or, he can retain all these people who give him his muscle, warts and all, and use them to attempt to push his way beyond 2015. If he purges himself of all the powerful Ministers and aides Obasanjo says he knew as evil, what would Jonathan look like? How would that help him towards 2015? Can he survive the period between now and the elections without these same people Obasanjo says make corruption the hallmarks of this administration?

There was only one thing Obasanjo did not explicitly ask President Jonathan to do: resign. But this is the only option his letter leaves the President Jonathan. So President Jonathan could resign, on the ground that Obasanjo’s letter has made it impossible for him to continue. He will not. He has the choice of  renouncing ambitions for another four years after 2015, but that option is likely to be resisted by his powerful circle. He can undertake some damage control and fire one or two Ministers, but this will be too little to late. He can attempt to dismiss the allegations of the existence of killer squads, but Nigerians will not believe him.

Obasanjo’s letter is most likely going to trigger a stubborn resistance from President Jonathan’s camp. Even an  inch conceded to Obasanjo will be fatal. Obasanjo has closed off all the routes for retreat. Surrender will be worse. Now Nigerians will feel the heat of a president with his back to the wall. He is likely to fight back, but can only do what he has always done. A fighting Jonathan will drag the nation down with him. Obasanjo spoke, whatever you may say of his motives or pedigree. If there are other leaders like him who think Jonathan is a liability, they should also speak up. There is only one thing worse than asking a leader to leave if he is leading his nation to destruction. It is  lacking the courage or commitment to do so, if you should.