Now what ?

“A hunter with one arrow does not shoot without aiming.” Nigerian Proverb.

 When the dust settles around the heat generated by President Obasanjo’s letter to President Jonathan, its full implications may become clearer. For a while, the nation will indulge in a favourite pastime: hitting out at everything except the real target. But sooner or later, the full significance of the assault on President Jonathan’s personal integrity, competence and even on the moral and ethical basis for his continuation as President by President Obasanjo will have to be faced. President Jonathan has bought a few days to prepare a response, although he may have mumbled some preliminaries at Obasanjo in a Nairobi Hotel during breakfast last week. Nigerians will get over the initial shock and skirmishes which have followed Obasanjo’s earlier letters, and face the cold reality that President Jonathan’s mentor, principal benefactor and former godfather now says he is not only unfit to govern, but that he is involved in raising killer squads

against opponents.

 Obasanjo’s record as a serial writer of scathing letters to former Heads of State will be exhumed by many to say he is playing true to character. That may take a little shine off his comprehensive assault on Jonathan, but it will not give the latter much relief. His role as the sole architect of the Yar’Adua/Jonathan presidency will be dug up and thrown at his face, and many Nigerians will remind him that the nation is merely reaping what he sowed. Indeed, the singular facilitation of a Jonathan presidency in 2011 which Obasanjo makes such song and dance about will be used to remind him of those days when he thought he had god-like powers. That will not teach Obasanjo humility, and it certainly will not help Jonathan. Even  Obasanjo’s cupboard brimming with skeletons may be referred to, as a reminder  that he stands on the same moral pedestal as Jonathan. This will not shame Obasanjo, and it will not take out a single skeleton out of Jonathan’s cupboard. Obasanjo The Brave will bask in the sun as Jonathan feels the venom of an adversary well versed in hitting when you are down.

 Many Nigerian hearts will be further saddened that the nation has hit rock bottom, when Obasanjo mounts the pulpit to surmonize, in a public document, most of what everyone has always known. If anything comes out of Obasanjo's provocation, not a few people will lose sleep over the fact that it took a letter from him to wake up a nation to the reality that it has been in a freefall for the last few years, and these will include much of his own second term. Some people would have preferred that General Yakubu Gowon and Alhaji Shehu Shagari had said what Obasanjo said. Or even Generals Babangida and Abdussalami and Danjuma. Or the Sultan and Cardinal Onaiyekan. Or all of them in one letter. Or fifty elders and leaders, the type of people who would have heard Speaker Tambuwal denounce the virtual endorsement by the President of corrupt acts; and read CBN Governor’s letter to the President on non-remittance of revenues from crude sales; and heard opposition governors allege massive diversions of public funds; and followed the damaging fights in the PDP; and noted the spectacular failure to contain a dangerous insurgency; and  shared the nation’s alarm over the tensions which Jonathan’s 2015 plans are raising.

 But it was President Obasanjo's finely-honed instinct for opportunism that is grabbing the nation’s attention. Whatever the nation thinks of Obasanjo(and there will be no prizes for guessing that Obasanjo is on a self re-invention mission) it now has to deal with his opus on Jonathan. More to the point, President Jonathan has to deal with the most comprehensive case made against any claim he can make to being an asset to the nation. In one fell swoop, Obasanjo’s letter appears to put many people in trouble. He mentions other leaders by name as being privy to the most intimate details of the sorry state of Jonathan’s leadership. Now their silence will be louder and more damaging. He denounces members of Jonathan’s circle, (a few of which he said used to be in his own circle) as the architects and builders of a presidency that is impenetrable and corrupt. There must a few aides around President Jonathan who had also fraternized with Obasanjo asking if they are the evil he is referring to. Allegations that President Jonathan is raising a killer squad will put many senior security officials in a very uncomfortable spot. They will be hoping that they will not be challenged to say whether our President is training snipers for use against opponents, or whether a former Head of State and Commander-In-Chief is a liar; or that they really do not know.

 President Obasanjo knows, however, that his letter was meant to fatally wound President Jonathan’s person and presidency. Stripped of all its pretensions of being an advisory, President Obasanjo said our President is unfit to continue to lead our nation. Not in 2015, but now. You do not catalogue damaging allegations of corruption, incompetence, inordinate and dangerous ambition, lack of will and a personal weakness which pervades the entire administration against a president, without implying that he is running the nation aground. Everything that can make that letter as damaging as it can be was done. He did not leak it; he splashed it. He invoked witnesses, so that the world will know he wasn’t alone in lamenting Jonathan’s stewardship. He dredged up everything, including casting doubts over the integrity of the national dialogue/conference, and telling Jonathan not to run in 2015.

 President Jonathan can ignore Obasanjo, but that will be a very poor option. Even if he can ignore the allegations rehashed by Obasanjo, or acknowledge them as issues which could have been better presented by a former President, he cannot ignore the allegations that he is raising a killer squad against opponents. He will have to convince Nigerians that Obasanjo is lying, because this is one issue that will not go away. To do this, he has to take on President Obasanjo very aggressively, and pray that the wily old General does not have his facts; and will not activate his elaborate global connections if he perceives the slightest hint of strong arms from the presidency.

 Then he has to decide whether he wants to deal with corruption in his corridors and the suffocating lack of openness and accountability over public finances, or just soldier on with the team which gives him his backbone, and gives his administration such a stench. Just removing a few of the ministers and aides the nation insists have soiled fingers will amount to a revolution by the standards President Jonathan set himself. But President Jonathan is not a revolutionary; and the nation will not be content with a token gesture to Obasanjo’s prodding. He could overhaul his party machinery, removing prominent irritants, but those who are defecting are doing so more as a result of his weakness than the powers of party functionaries. He could renounce his 2015 ambitions and cancel the national dialogue, but this will leave him in an even more vulnerable position. If he is not good enough to run again in 2015 on the basis of his record, why wait until then before he steps aside. A crippled presidency is a liability and a threat to the nation.

 Obasanjo has left President Jonathan virtually no room for manouver, except to do what he has always done, and pray that handlers and clan members will abuse and scare the rest of the nation into submission. He will certainly attempt some sort of a fightback, because he cannot ignore Obasanjo’s stranglehold, and he cannot retreat without exposing all his flanks. Fightback will involve digging in and insisting that he is on course. It may also involve taking on fresh adversaries and traditional foes who will attempt to follow through on Obasanjo’s major assault. This will create a most damaging environment with an administration fighting for its life on all fronts, with every weapon at its disposal. If other leaders with any credibility have held back on joining the fray, they need to step toward now. The stakes are too high to leave this fight to Presidents Obasanjo and Jonathan.