Asari, the “crab”

“To get rid of anger, first weed out the bitter roots” Ugandan Proberb.

The trenchant criticism of President Goodluck Jonathan by the former militant, Mujahid Asari Dokubo a few days ago must have hit where it hurts. Presidential spokesman, Reuben Abati’s reaction suggests that time has been taken to assess the damage done by Dokubo’s outburst, and a decision taken to respond with some elaborate verve. It could all be an effort at some damage control as well, as President Jonathan seeks to mend fences with President Obasanjo who insists he won’t blink. Mr Abati says Asari Dokubo is behaving like crabs do, and his plans are to pull down President Jonathan’s administration. How much good the denunciation of Mr Dokubo will do a President fighting on all fronts, including his all-important home front will largely depend on whether more of his inner caucus break ranks as well.

Even a nation which has become exhausted by its persistent pressure on President Jonathan to improve the manner his administration tackles the nation’s most serious problems will not ignore this latest spat, and will ignore the plea to dismiss them as ill-advised. Without a doubt, Alhaji Dokubo pulled no punches in his tirade against the President. He must be a rank outsider now, after having been comfortably settled in the inner recesses of Jonathan’s administration, because his grouse was laced by bitterness at the circle around the President these days. This circle, he says, is responsible for everything negative about the administration, including greed and corruption. It must be a small circle indeed, if it excludes people like Dokubo, and what it does with the nation’s resources must be of such odious nature that even a major beneficiary like him will complain.

The man who spat fire at some elements of the northern opposition against Jonathan a few months ago, and threatened to teach them a lesson if ever the JASLIWAJ (a.k.a. Boko Haram) dares to touch an inch of the south-south now says that President Jonathan should not count on people like him and the community if he decides to run for office of the President again in 2015. A combination of the gradual alienation of mass support from the south-south and gross incompetence of his administration, according to Alhaji Dokubo, will guarantee that Jonathan will not find many people rooting for him any longer.

Whether he spoke with the consent of President Obasanjo or not, Alhaji Dokubo made him a major issue in his grievances towards President Jonathan. He took strong objection to the deterioration in relations between Presidents Obasanjo and Jonathan, and while the irony that he was doing to Jonathan what he accused Jonathan of doing to Obasanjo may be lost on him, he accused Jonathan of ingratitude in the manner he relates with Obasanjo.

It is not difficult to isolate the more painful thorns in Dokubo’s diatribe, something Abati described as akin to a man who stands outside and urinates inside his own house. It is difficult to see how Alhaji Dokubo can help Obasanjo in his relations with Jonathan. He is not exactly the type who takes up Obasajo’s gauntlets, and is too much of a loose cannon for the old man to rely on. In any case, Obasanjo is, on his own, a master at slapping back, and only recently, restated that only death will stop him from criticizing and complaining over state affairs. People like Alhaji Dokubo have their values, and both he and Obasanjo know a lot about each other. But that still doesn’t make him an ideal spokesperson; unless it is for the purpose of softening the ground in preparation for more decisive moves against the President’s ambition in 2015 by Obasanjo. Even here, President Jonathan’s men have fallen over themselves to mend fences with a man who is involved in major realignments that will put him squarely at the heart of the battle for 2015.

The grouse over the greedy circle which surrounds Jonathan, coming from Dokubo, will sound like sour grapes. It is in the nature of all circles that they shrink or expand depending on what is available. They always involve much jockeying for space, and losers cry to the high heavens. Former militants, including Alhaji Dokubo are among the most rewarded people under Jonathan’s administration. People who a few years ago were top of the wanted list in security circles are now major contractors of government, and custodians of valuable oil and gas assets which they blew up routinely as militants. If the circle involving some of these people has shrunk and left out people like Alhaji Dokubo, you have to worry over Jonathan’s capacity to retain and reward loyalty, or whether, in fact, he has anything to do with managing circles.

It is important that this spat is not dismissed in the manner Mr Abati will want done. An insider who cries foul over greedy circles around the President should be taken seriously. The difficulties around penetrating and neutralizing powerful interests involved in fuel subsidy, the failures to reform the petroleum sector, issues related to security of oil and gas assets, numerous scams and inefficiencies in managing budgetary issues and accounting for public funds are all serious matters which have captured the nation’s attention. Could these be what Alhaji Dokubo is referring to? Could the rumoured unspeakable amounts of easy money from many sources which will be unaccounted for be the cause of this spat?

It is interesting that Mr Abati chose the analogy of the crab to describe Alhaji Dokubo’s criticism of the President. Crabs do appear to pull back those among them in confined spaces which attempt to escape. But Mr Abati does not seem to understand why, so he equates it with the “pull him down” syndrome which is a popular expression among Nigerians. Crabs hold on to those who look like they are about to escape from limited, confined spaces because they think they will also be pulled up by the brave ones who make the effort. The fact is, crabs have no business being in confined spaces, so their behaviour cannot be understood only at the point of being eaten.

The analogy with crabs will only be useful if they remind Mr Abati that greedy circles around powerful and important persons and offices such as the President will breed crab mentality. The largess of office, legitimate or otherwise will be fought over; and the higher the stakes, the more bitter the struggle. Crabs will not be pulling down other crabs if they are in their natural state and environment. Any government which corners huge resources around the President should expect intense fights similar to the struggle of crabs to escape. On the other hand when governments respect the rule of law and run open, accountable systems, circles and crabs will be irrelevant and non-existent.

When people like Alhaji Dokubo go public with bitter complaints against the President they swore to protect with all at their disposal, the nation should worry. These are very rich and powerful people, and they still have substantial influence over the security of our oil and gas assets. Any major falling-out has the potential to affect the delicate balance between some peace in the area and the industry, and resurgence of hostilities. Alhaji Dokubo may not, as Abati says, be about to pull down Jonathan’s administration. But he can damage it substantially. That may hurt Jonathan politically, but it could do more damage to the security of the nation. This is why President Jonathan should be advised to pay closer attention to the way he manages his circle of influence.

Kaduna State after Yakowa

“It is easy to stand with a crowd, but it takes courage to stand alone.” Ugandan Proverb.

The intense jockeying for the position of a Deputy Governor in Kaduna State says a lot about the vacuum left behind by Sir Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa. Having put to rest a man about whom all the good things were said after he died, the state is now having to live with the consequences of his sudden demise. Much attention will be focused on the new Governor, Mukhtar Ramalan Yero, but he will not have a free hand in the manner he resolves many of the problems the state. Yakowa’s tenure as governor had ignited a fire, and although his death has tampered the heat of that fire, there are many hands about which will attempt to protect what is left. The arguments over what Yakowa’s governorship represented will be the defining character of the politics of Kaduna state for a long time. The nature of Kaduna state politics will also substantially define national politics, and every move will now be made only with reference to 2015.

These will not be easy days for Governor Yero. He has to take difficult decisions over political office holders which Yakowa installed. Many of these had treated him with thinly-veiled contempt; although in fairness, that is how most deputy governors are treated. The northern and southern parts of the state will watch to see who leaves and who stays, and they will all be counted as losses or gains. If he leaves the cabinet intact, he will be accused of indecision and weakness. If he decides to replace all or most of the Commissioners, he will open the floodgates to another round of lobbying which saps energy and earns him more enemies than friends. If he replaces only a few, he will be accused of tampering with loyalists of Yakowa, Makarfi or Namadi Sambo. If he involves the party in these decisions, he will open himself up to loud noise and poor output. If he doesn’t, he will be accused of distancing himself from the party, not rewarding loyalty, and appointing unknowns.

The selection of a Deputy will open up huge chasms in the political establishment, particularly in southern Kaduna. Late Yakowa had almost resigned himself to the fact that he could never please his own immediate constituency. Such were the high expectations which his governorship generated, that those from the south who expected a revolution walked away from his administration within a few months. Many others waited to see if time will help him address widening insecurity, and adopt a more robust economic policy that should make a difference in a desperately – underdeveloped economy. They too walked away, complaining that he only favoured the north. The few remaining optimists who thought he was not a miracle worker found niches in political appointments and the bureaucracy, and tried to make maximum use of the opportunity, without, however, winning him new friends from the south.

Now all groups are rallying around to have one of their’s as deputy to Yero. Some  of this is about damage control. Many of the clusters of influence want a deputy who will reduce potential damage that may come from rolling back some of Yakowa’s policies or decisions. Most lobbyists fail to recognize that a deputy governor is only as important as the Governor wants him or her to be, and Yero, who did not have the time of this life as deputy to Yakowa, is not likely to cut much slack for a deputy, particularly an aggressively ambitious one who is pushed towards him with a defined agenda. Whoever he chooses in the end, you can be sure the decision will alienate many people from the south.

Then there is the issue of how he relates with the Vice President. President Jonathan had given Yakowa a lot of cover as governor in the manner he ran Kaduna state, in a context where both the Vice President and Senator Makarfi had substantial control of the grounds. Yero’s goodwill at the Villa may depend largely on Mr President’s relations with the V.P, but it certainly will be boosted by the appearance that he intends to wear Yakowa’s shoes, and maintain some independence from the No. 2. That goodwill will be important to Governor Yero if he falls out with some powerful people in the party or with the Vice President. He will forfeit it if he is seen as resisting the possible candidature of Jonathan in 2015, and it will be worse if it appears that the VP himself is throwing his hat into the ring. But for a PDP governor who may nurse ambitions for a term in 2015, goodwill of the Villa is absolutely vital, and every move he makes henceforth will be interpreted in that context.

In the midst of all these boobytraps, the new Governor has to find a way around even more potent minefields. The most dangerous of these is the persistence of the ethno-religious hostility in the state. Bishop Kukah’s homily at Yakowa’s funeral should be read very carefully by those looking for clues that the north and south, Muslims and Christians have a future in a peaceful state. It was soothing and reassuring in parts, and provocative in parts. Even for a pitch at rallying a people who have lost a major asset, the rabble rousing and pointed insinuations which suggest that Muslims are still the enemy was unbecoming of the standing of Bishop Kukah. Innuendoes and vague references to shadowy enemies will not do justice to the memory of a man whose life was shaped by God using Muslims and Christian hands.

An all-inclusive democratic process which reduces the dangerous gaps that endanger all Muslims and Christians in Kaduna State will be difficult to attain when you hear of some of Bishop Kukah’s homily. That homily should keep Governor Yero on his toes, among many other good advise. He needs prayers and courage to find a way out of the cynicism and doubt that Kaduna State and the nation will know permanent peace.

Do gooders and hell raisers

“The hands that tie up the hyena are those that will free her.” Hausa Proverb

Senate President David Mark last week pleaded with Nigerians not to lose faith in the indivisibility of Nigeria. He asked constituents in his senatorial zone to pray harder and rally behind leaders so that together leaders and led will overcome the nation’s current problems. Senator Mark spoke two days after the Benue State governor Gabriel Suswan told a church congregation that the dwindling number of Christian governors in the North is a source of concern. He reminded them that the death of Sir Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa and the hospitalization of the Taraba State governor has left him and Governor Jonah Jang as the only two Northern Christian governors standing. Those in the congregation not shocked by the statistics were jolted further when the governor revealed further that he is himself an active target of Boko Haram, and appealed to them to pray for him.

You could be forgiven if you thought that Suswan was desperately diverting some of the limelight around a genuine national tragedy, which was the death of Governor Yakowa, former N.S.A, Azazi and others. Governor Suswam must really believe in the potency of prayers of simple, poor folks, because to announce to a church congregation that a Chief Executive Officer of a state is marked for elimination, and expect that prayers of church goers will protect him shows profound faith. Its either that, or he is putting himself forward as potential leader seeking political capital by involving the most primordial and dangerous sentiments, and digging even deeper into the muck of politics of fear which leaders like him now play. Either way, it is surprising that the congregation did not scamper in fear of being around a marked man, who, with all the paraphernalia for personal security, says he needs them to pray for him as well.

In the same week that Suswam counted only two out of 19 Christian governors as if northern Muslims are to be held responsible for Yakowa and Suntai’s fate, and listed himself among every Nigerian, Christian or Muslim who is a marked target of the Jamaatu Ahlil Sunnah Lidda’awati Wal Jihad (a.k.a Boko Haram), some sobering words also came from people who recognize the value of being responsible. General Yakubu Gowon cautioned against insinuations that the crash that took Yakowa’s life was anything but an accident. He said he himself could have been on the same plane but for a change in flight arrangements. The son of the late governor said his family had come to terms with their father’s death as the will of God, and they see part of a greater purpose in the desired unity of Kaduna State and the nation. Millions of citizens, Christians as well as Muslims mourned the passing away of a governor who worked hard to build bridges even in the face of forces that broke all his building blocks before they even dried. The Izala movement postponed its meeting as a result of his death. The Christian Association of Nigeria said it accepted his death as the supreme act of God, and the South Kaduna People Union (SOKAPU) prayed that God will grant the new governor the courage and wisdom to govern the state.

The funeral of late Yakowa was a study in how nations can capture defining moments even if fleetingly. It was a befitting farewell to a man who courted and won the friendship and hearts of many Muslims without being one; and who loved his Christian brethren without having that love fully reciprocated. He played politics the way he thought it ought to have been played. He attempted to build bridges neither side trusted or walked across. He was a hero that was unheralded until he died.

Governor Suswam did a great disservice in mentioning the name of Yakowa in the context of his pitch for local support using scare tactics and base sentiments. Yakowa was not in his class, and even though he did not have large multitudes following him around all his pet projects towards building peace, he was very clear in his mind that neither Christians nor Muslims will find peace in Kaduna State, or in Nigeria without working with each other towards that end. He knew that it hurts Muslims that murderers of innocent people in Zonkwa are walking free today, in the same measure he encountered the anger of young people in Zonkwa when he went to condole them over the killing of villagers last year. He knew that his unwieldy Peace and Reconciliation Committee is seen largely as a token solution which could compound the problem, but he pushed on nonetheless, in the belief that it was better than doing nothing.

When President Jonathan, with refreshing candour possibly triggered by the occasion, said last week that all Nigerian politicians exploit religious and ethnic sentiments to divide Nigerians, people like governor Suswan will be the first to come to mind. You would think that he had heard of governor Suswam’s church speech when he also said at the funeral of late Yakowa that elders should be wary of their utterances. He said “utterances and words of elders are just like winds and waves that move, gather momentum and cause destructive effects… whose end result cannot be predicted. Responses of our young men and women are reflections of what the elders talk in public and even in private.”

The hopes that the death of Patrick Yakowa will give Kaduna State renewed impetus to find peace and economic progress will be dampened by utterances such as those of the Benue governor. There are genuine attempts to demonstrate that leaders can lead fairly and do justice without necessarily being Christian or Muslim, in a nation where Muslims and Christians live under the same objective conditions. But many politicians equate our security and economic welfare with their faith. When they contest for power using religious or ethnic sentiments, they alienate substantial portions of the population which think those who emerge as leaders do not represent them. These sentiments get narrower as competition from other politicians using the same tactics close the space. Governor Suswam should be a veteran at this, having been on the receiving end of Idoma hostility and complaints of gross marginalization.

If this nation had a fail-safe reservoir of memories of faultlines and flashpoints, it would accord prominence to the lessons behind the violence in many parts of the north which greeted the announced results of the 2011 presidential elections. It will also accord due significance to the bitterness which still hovers around the presidency of Goodluck Jonathan and many elected leaders. The clues behind these are within reach: they are the dangerous pitch made to manipulate ethnicity, religion and region in order to whip up sentiments against opponents. In most instances they worked. Today, the Nigerian democratic system is full of embers which could ignite more fires.

It will be comforting if President Jonathan’s caution over use of religion and region were to be taken seriously by him and people like governor Suswam. Unfortunately, this is not very likely. Politicians who build power bases using dangerously divisive tactics win find it almost impossible to change these bases. This means only one thing: as we move toward 2015, more and more Nigerians will be pitted against each other in fights which suggest that citizens’ entire livelihood and security is dependent on the faith and ethnic group of political leaders. Political parties will not build bridges across dangerous divides to unite groups. They will exploit them, and polarize communities even further. Issues will not feature in campaigns, but persons and their characteristics will. Elections will be very bitterly fought, and contestants will raise the stakes so high that none will trust a free and fair election to determine whether they win or lose. Suswam’s sermon foretells of a very frightening future for Nigeria.

God and us

“I believe there is something out there watching us. Unfortunately, it’s the government.” Woody Allen.

The awesome power of the Almighty was visible on Saturday last week when the plane which was flying the Governor of Kaduna State and former National Security Adviser, among others, crashed, and all lives in it were lost. The nation was also reminded of the deep submission to the powers of God by President Goodluck Jonathan in the manner his pictures were splashed all over the media and social network sites kneeling, as he did in 2010, before Pastor Enoch Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God. The tragic end of a good man, Patrick Yakowa could only have been part of a divine design, and most of the embattled citizens of his state must have believed this, because any other conclusion or circumstances would have triggered another round of mayhem. Two men whose political careers can only be explained by reference to divide powers reminded us of deeply we trust God in our lives, yet conduct our public affairs with scant regard for His demands on us.

Sir Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa, the good-natured and vastly-experienced Governor of Kaduna rose through the political ladder in much the same way as did President Jonathan. Death, that constant reminder of man’s frailty played roles in their lives with an uncanny similarity. Yakowa became Deputy Governor after Stephen Shekari died. He was then a Secretary to the State Government. He served two Governors as a loyal deputy, until the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua elevated then Vice President Jonathan to the Presidency of the nation. Of all the people he could have chosen, he selected Architect Namadi Sambo, Governor of Kaduna State to be his Vice. Yakowa again moved up to take a slot providentially provided, the first person from southern Kaduna and a christian to become Governor of Kaduna State. Both Yakowa and Jonathan, minorities and political dark horses, completed terms of others, and then battled for their own.

It is difficult to argue with people who argue that it was God’s will that Jonathan and Yakowa became President and Governor in 2011 respectively, principally because it is difficult to disprove it. Among people who routinely ascribe to God everything good, and then fight fiercely to subvert everything good, God is invoked when we are in trouble, and when we are safe and secure, we operate as if He does not exist.

We give glory to God when we have power and wealth, irrespective of the manner we acquire them. This is the same as giving gratitude to God for getting away with it all. We build temples for God with stolen money, and bow our heads in prayer that he will accept our supplications when we pray in them. We go through rituals of our faith in a mechanical manner, and separate our private lives largely marked by the love and fear of God, from our public lives and conduct, which are governed by values that negate everything God stands for.

The hand of God was visible in the life of Sir Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa right up to his last breadth. The manner of his death cannot be separated from the major turning points in his life. For those who have the time to care, there are many lessons. One is the transient and ephemeral nature of political power. The bitter struggle to acquire and accumulate power and wealth could all be ended in one fell swoop. But not what you do with them. Popular opinion in Kaduna State is that the late Governor was a man who tried his best to govern a state wracked by cumulative and dangerous divisions, suspicions and conflicts. His valiant effort to bring peace in a state constantly threatened with conflict alienated him from both is own people from southern Kaduna who thought he was too soft on the “enemy”, and also from the other side, which thought he had a stolen mandate to implement a christian agenda in a state which has been a religious conflict frontline for a long time. In the end, he gave it his best shot, and will be remembered as a good man who was held back by history and the limitations of our political system.

President Jonathan will feel the absence of Patrick Yakowa, a man he loved, perhaps because he saw so much of himself in the late Governor. His moving submission on his knees to powers greater than Pastor Adeboye, and his attribution of his current position to God should be reinforced by the death of Yakowa. A President who believes that he owes his position to the acceptance of prayers to God should run an administration that pleases God. God that has powers to elevate and bless, also has powers to take away power, and punish ingratitude and arrogance. The millions of Nigerians who watched President Jonathan kneel before Pastor Adeboye will hope that the blessings he sought for are for him to lead this nation better. Most Nigerians will have an instinctive empathy with the abject humility of the President, but they will expect that a blessed President on his feet will be emboldened to make radical improvements in the manner he runs his administration.

A God-fearing leader will live a personal life that is disciplined, prudent and accountable. He will not tolerate abuse of rules or laws, no matter how little or large. He will be honest beyond reproach, and will not tolerate dishonesty from those around him. He will live a simple and humble life, and will shun ostentation and arrogance. He will be compassionate and sensitive to the needs of the people he leads. He will be, above all, a servant of his people, a provider and comforter in distress and need.

The President’s task to run his administration in a manner which suggests that he sees the presence of God in his personal life will be a difficult one indeed. The heart-rending report of 800,000 people applying for 1,800 advertised jobs in I.N.E.C is only a symptom of the very deep crises which faces the vast majority of particularly younger Nigerians. Everywhere you turn you are reminded of numbing statistics and stories of failures of the economy or security to keep millions of citizens out of desperate situations. Billions are reportedly being stolen by well-connected people; and gangs are turning kidnapping of people into a thriving industry. An insurgency is threatening vast parts of the country, and criminal activities of all types are threatening to overwhelm the nation.

There are obviously massive gaps between our basic cultural values and our political system. A people who have profound faith in God have failed to run a political and economic system which has the slightest semblance with the manner God wants to see Godly societies run. You will almost wonder whether Nigerians believe genuinely in the power of God to punish wrong-doing in the way we steal and abuse trust with such wanton impunity.

There are pressures all around to improve the manner our politics benefits from our faith. At this stage, some of these pressures are being expressed either by people who think only faith-based political systems can work, or by people who pander to our basest instincts by invoking God in their support. The fight against systemic decay and failure will have to involve the emergence of leaders who genuinely love and fear God, and do his bidding with the trust and resources of the people.