Another look at the North

“The way a cat walks is not the way it catches rats” South African Proverb.

Around this time last year the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) held a major conference on the economic and political fortunes of the North. Last week the region was again involved in a number of meetings which focused on its challenges and dwindling opportunities. Beginning with the first Sir Ahmadu Bello Foundation Memorial Lecture delivered by the reknown international diplomat, Professor Ibrahim Gambari, the last week also witnessed two major gatherings of politicians, academics, professionals, media executives, religious leaders and an assortment of elders and young people all of whom had something to say or wanted to hear about the alarming state of society and economy in the political and geographic North. There were also smaller, but significant events: former Vice President Atiku Abubakar delivered the Shehu Yar’Adua Memorial Lecture in Abuja during which he restated his claim to lead with ideas and vision, and Vice President Namadi Sambo married off his two daughters in Kaduna, an event which locked down half of the city to allow the region’s and nation’s current strongmen to feel comfortable enough to attend a wedding in a mosque.

Six governors from the north-east zone attended a Summit, after the one convened a few weeks ago was effectively scuttled by their absence, and the panic that was caused when the convener’s remarks on the neglect of the region by the federal government, and the contemplation of its going its own way was used to taint a meeting which started with high expectations. This particular meeting was in turn massively boycotted by the elites who attended the previous one, leading to the only conclusion that the gap between the governors and the political and professional elite in the region is growing wider. In any case, all the appropriate sentiments were mouthed, although no one at that meeting could have failed to notice that a much bigger and better quality of forum was holding in Kaduna. The north east governors must be satisfied that they have reinforced their positions as the region’s enforcers, and if all they do is to meet with each other and a few people who will not spring surprises at them, their positions are safe.

The two-day Kaduna conference, held in a venue with profound symbolism, appeared even more successful when viewed against the lackluster impact of parallel activities. The inspiring lecture on the life and times of Sir Ahmadu Bello, and the lessons which may be drawn from them to deal with the crippling contemporary problems of the north was well-attended by the type of people from the north who have more name and pedigree than power. Those with power now and ambitions for more were all away on other engagements. Predictably, the present loci of power in the north and the administration came under heavy fire, the most worrying being that they have abandoned the values and legacies of the late Premier. Poverty, corruption and insecurity in the north have replaced the confidence and competence with which he and his team led a government that was all-inclusive, visionary and committed. Gaps in social cohesion and decays in core values have given rise to unprecedented levels of cynicism and hostility among the citizenry, and mediocrity in the quality of the leadership. In spite of the lecturer’s valiant efforts to smoothen his punches, it was clear from the audience that the present leadership of the North (principally governors) are being held responsible for all the ills of the region.

Perhaps the quality of the people who attended the Kaduna conference held at the Arewa House, the residence of the late Sardauna where he was also murdered were sensitive to the weaknesses in the argument that today’s northern governors are to held responsible for all the problems of the region, because they avoided making copious references to them or their preoccupations. Or, perhaps, a conference attended by a former head of state, a former vice president, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the host Governor and the cream of northern intelligentsia, political groups, elders and active politicians with grievances against the present administration’s governance record had found more value in focusing beyond the obvious in its attempt to understand the sources, dynamics and solutions to problems of the North today.

The Arewa House meeting was clearly intended to address the failure of this administration, as well as the current leaders of the North, to find solutions to its problems. The impressive meeting of the ACF this time last year had yielded excellent ideas, suggestions, blueprints and strategies, all of which have been packaged and delivered to northern governors and the presidency. In the one year it has taken to do this, the North had become more insecure, poorer and weaker. A look ahead towards the next one year will yield no evidence that northern governors will do anything about those ideas and blueprints. It is obvious that they have neither the time nor the resources, to embark on bold and expensive ventures. They have too little left from monthly allocations to invest in agriculture, economic infrastructure or human resources. They have nothing to leverage from the administration and other parts of Nigeria for additional funding, and the scope for reviews of allocation formula is becoming more limited with increasing politicization.

Worse, many of the northern governors are also actively eying the presidency in 2015. Their ambitions will pitch them against each other, and against President Jonathan. The opportunity to rise and embark on some eye-catching and substantial project in the name of the North is therefore virtually non-existent. Each governor will be engrossed in either seeking a second term, or deciding what he should do after his second term, while working to frustrate similar ambitions. In the next few months, a few of them will have to stick their necks out more prominently, and they will have no favours done to them by the Jonathan presidency anxious to tap into the weaknesses of the North, or contenders from the region.

The Arewa House meeting’s communiqué specifically mentioned re-engineering the political fortunes of the North towards 2015. For a forum which was graced by a lone (host) governor at the opening ceremony, one view will suggest that governors and northern political groups, elders and professionals do not appear to see much value in each other. Either governors feel that their political fortunes are not contingent on the support, goodwill or muscle of northern politicians, academia and professionals, or even elderly politicians; or they have developed such profound fear of outings to fora of this nature that they will rather avoid them at all cost. On the other hand, it is conceivable that the dozen or so groups of northerners with considerable experience, varied backgrounds, influence and resources which run around lamenting the current state of the North have an exaggerated idea of their capacities. Both the groups and the governors have thinly-veiled contempt for each other. Many governors think many members of the groups merely want their seats, and will do exactly what the governors do in their places. On the other hand, members of northern political groups think they can by-pass governors and create political momentum and platforms that will radically alter the nature of the northern political environment by tapping into the anger of the population and appealing to the need for change alone. As at now, there are no effective bridges between the two.

There is however, another set of people who recognize the value of both the governors and political groups, professionals and academia. These are politicians and elders who see the 2015 battle involving a synergy of incumbent governors and the intrinsic value of marginal political assets and muscle, which the groups represent. They were not in short supply at the Arewa House event. Above all, President Jonathan and Vice President Namadi Sambo could not have failed to notice that the Arewa House meeting was a declaration of sorts. It said very clearly that 2015 will represent a major attempt by northern politicians to take power away from him. It signaled a fresh and public admission that the foundations of political unity which had been eroded and exploited will be rebuilt before 2015, and the dangerous splits along religious lines will be vigorously addressed. It signaled a willingness to go beyond lamenting the damage wrought on the economy, politics and social structure of the North by the Jamaatu Ahlil Sunnah Didiawati Wal Jihad (a.k.a. Boko Haram). For the most senior northerner in the administration, the Vice President, both he and the meeting appear to agree that he has no political ambition that relate to leading the North.

There is still a long way to go in assessing the value of the efforts being made by northerners to address the problems of the region. At this stage, only those who do not represent solutions to its problems are known. Governors and President Jonathan are in this category. Those who will be active in providing alternatives to its current state will have to work very hard to sustain the tempo of interest and the momentum for change. They will not find it all smooth sailing, because the weaknesses of the North is the strength of others.