Asari, the “crab”

“To get rid of anger, first weed out the bitter roots” Ugandan Proberb.

The trenchant criticism of President Goodluck Jonathan by the former militant, Mujahid Asari Dokubo a few days ago must have hit where it hurts. Presidential spokesman, Reuben Abati’s reaction suggests that time has been taken to assess the damage done by Dokubo’s outburst, and a decision taken to respond with some elaborate verve. It could all be an effort at some damage control as well, as President Jonathan seeks to mend fences with President Obasanjo who insists he won’t blink. Mr Abati says Asari Dokubo is behaving like crabs do, and his plans are to pull down President Jonathan’s administration. How much good the denunciation of Mr Dokubo will do a President fighting on all fronts, including his all-important home front will largely depend on whether more of his inner caucus break ranks as well.

Even a nation which has become exhausted by its persistent pressure on President Jonathan to improve the manner his administration tackles the nation’s most serious problems will not ignore this latest spat, and will ignore the plea to dismiss them as ill-advised. Without a doubt, Alhaji Dokubo pulled no punches in his tirade against the President. He must be a rank outsider now, after having been comfortably settled in the inner recesses of Jonathan’s administration, because his grouse was laced by bitterness at the circle around the President these days. This circle, he says, is responsible for everything negative about the administration, including greed and corruption. It must be a small circle indeed, if it excludes people like Dokubo, and what it does with the nation’s resources must be of such odious nature that even a major beneficiary like him will complain.

The man who spat fire at some elements of the northern opposition against Jonathan a few months ago, and threatened to teach them a lesson if ever the JASLIWAJ (a.k.a. Boko Haram) dares to touch an inch of the south-south now says that President Jonathan should not count on people like him and the community if he decides to run for office of the President again in 2015. A combination of the gradual alienation of mass support from the south-south and gross incompetence of his administration, according to Alhaji Dokubo, will guarantee that Jonathan will not find many people rooting for him any longer.

Whether he spoke with the consent of President Obasanjo or not, Alhaji Dokubo made him a major issue in his grievances towards President Jonathan. He took strong objection to the deterioration in relations between Presidents Obasanjo and Jonathan, and while the irony that he was doing to Jonathan what he accused Jonathan of doing to Obasanjo may be lost on him, he accused Jonathan of ingratitude in the manner he relates with Obasanjo.

It is not difficult to isolate the more painful thorns in Dokubo’s diatribe, something Abati described as akin to a man who stands outside and urinates inside his own house. It is difficult to see how Alhaji Dokubo can help Obasanjo in his relations with Jonathan. He is not exactly the type who takes up Obasajo’s gauntlets, and is too much of a loose cannon for the old man to rely on. In any case, Obasanjo is, on his own, a master at slapping back, and only recently, restated that only death will stop him from criticizing and complaining over state affairs. People like Alhaji Dokubo have their values, and both he and Obasanjo know a lot about each other. But that still doesn’t make him an ideal spokesperson; unless it is for the purpose of softening the ground in preparation for more decisive moves against the President’s ambition in 2015 by Obasanjo. Even here, President Jonathan’s men have fallen over themselves to mend fences with a man who is involved in major realignments that will put him squarely at the heart of the battle for 2015.

The grouse over the greedy circle which surrounds Jonathan, coming from Dokubo, will sound like sour grapes. It is in the nature of all circles that they shrink or expand depending on what is available. They always involve much jockeying for space, and losers cry to the high heavens. Former militants, including Alhaji Dokubo are among the most rewarded people under Jonathan’s administration. People who a few years ago were top of the wanted list in security circles are now major contractors of government, and custodians of valuable oil and gas assets which they blew up routinely as militants. If the circle involving some of these people has shrunk and left out people like Alhaji Dokubo, you have to worry over Jonathan’s capacity to retain and reward loyalty, or whether, in fact, he has anything to do with managing circles.

It is important that this spat is not dismissed in the manner Mr Abati will want done. An insider who cries foul over greedy circles around the President should be taken seriously. The difficulties around penetrating and neutralizing powerful interests involved in fuel subsidy, the failures to reform the petroleum sector, issues related to security of oil and gas assets, numerous scams and inefficiencies in managing budgetary issues and accounting for public funds are all serious matters which have captured the nation’s attention. Could these be what Alhaji Dokubo is referring to? Could the rumoured unspeakable amounts of easy money from many sources which will be unaccounted for be the cause of this spat?

It is interesting that Mr Abati chose the analogy of the crab to describe Alhaji Dokubo’s criticism of the President. Crabs do appear to pull back those among them in confined spaces which attempt to escape. But Mr Abati does not seem to understand why, so he equates it with the “pull him down” syndrome which is a popular expression among Nigerians. Crabs hold on to those who look like they are about to escape from limited, confined spaces because they think they will also be pulled up by the brave ones who make the effort. The fact is, crabs have no business being in confined spaces, so their behaviour cannot be understood only at the point of being eaten.

The analogy with crabs will only be useful if they remind Mr Abati that greedy circles around powerful and important persons and offices such as the President will breed crab mentality. The largess of office, legitimate or otherwise will be fought over; and the higher the stakes, the more bitter the struggle. Crabs will not be pulling down other crabs if they are in their natural state and environment. Any government which corners huge resources around the President should expect intense fights similar to the struggle of crabs to escape. On the other hand when governments respect the rule of law and run open, accountable systems, circles and crabs will be irrelevant and non-existent.

When people like Alhaji Dokubo go public with bitter complaints against the President they swore to protect with all at their disposal, the nation should worry. These are very rich and powerful people, and they still have substantial influence over the security of our oil and gas assets. Any major falling-out has the potential to affect the delicate balance between some peace in the area and the industry, and resurgence of hostilities. Alhaji Dokubo may not, as Abati says, be about to pull down Jonathan’s administration. But he can damage it substantially. That may hurt Jonathan politically, but it could do more damage to the security of the nation. This is why President Jonathan should be advised to pay closer attention to the way he manages his circle of influence.