Kaduna State after Yakowa

“It is easy to stand with a crowd, but it takes courage to stand alone.” Ugandan Proverb.

The intense jockeying for the position of a Deputy Governor in Kaduna State says a lot about the vacuum left behind by Sir Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa. Having put to rest a man about whom all the good things were said after he died, the state is now having to live with the consequences of his sudden demise. Much attention will be focused on the new Governor, Mukhtar Ramalan Yero, but he will not have a free hand in the manner he resolves many of the problems the state. Yakowa’s tenure as governor had ignited a fire, and although his death has tampered the heat of that fire, there are many hands about which will attempt to protect what is left. The arguments over what Yakowa’s governorship represented will be the defining character of the politics of Kaduna state for a long time. The nature of Kaduna state politics will also substantially define national politics, and every move will now be made only with reference to 2015.

These will not be easy days for Governor Yero. He has to take difficult decisions over political office holders which Yakowa installed. Many of these had treated him with thinly-veiled contempt; although in fairness, that is how most deputy governors are treated. The northern and southern parts of the state will watch to see who leaves and who stays, and they will all be counted as losses or gains. If he leaves the cabinet intact, he will be accused of indecision and weakness. If he decides to replace all or most of the Commissioners, he will open the floodgates to another round of lobbying which saps energy and earns him more enemies than friends. If he replaces only a few, he will be accused of tampering with loyalists of Yakowa, Makarfi or Namadi Sambo. If he involves the party in these decisions, he will open himself up to loud noise and poor output. If he doesn’t, he will be accused of distancing himself from the party, not rewarding loyalty, and appointing unknowns.

The selection of a Deputy will open up huge chasms in the political establishment, particularly in southern Kaduna. Late Yakowa had almost resigned himself to the fact that he could never please his own immediate constituency. Such were the high expectations which his governorship generated, that those from the south who expected a revolution walked away from his administration within a few months. Many others waited to see if time will help him address widening insecurity, and adopt a more robust economic policy that should make a difference in a desperately – underdeveloped economy. They too walked away, complaining that he only favoured the north. The few remaining optimists who thought he was not a miracle worker found niches in political appointments and the bureaucracy, and tried to make maximum use of the opportunity, without, however, winning him new friends from the south.

Now all groups are rallying around to have one of their’s as deputy to Yero. Some  of this is about damage control. Many of the clusters of influence want a deputy who will reduce potential damage that may come from rolling back some of Yakowa’s policies or decisions. Most lobbyists fail to recognize that a deputy governor is only as important as the Governor wants him or her to be, and Yero, who did not have the time of this life as deputy to Yakowa, is not likely to cut much slack for a deputy, particularly an aggressively ambitious one who is pushed towards him with a defined agenda. Whoever he chooses in the end, you can be sure the decision will alienate many people from the south.

Then there is the issue of how he relates with the Vice President. President Jonathan had given Yakowa a lot of cover as governor in the manner he ran Kaduna state, in a context where both the Vice President and Senator Makarfi had substantial control of the grounds. Yero’s goodwill at the Villa may depend largely on Mr President’s relations with the V.P, but it certainly will be boosted by the appearance that he intends to wear Yakowa’s shoes, and maintain some independence from the No. 2. That goodwill will be important to Governor Yero if he falls out with some powerful people in the party or with the Vice President. He will forfeit it if he is seen as resisting the possible candidature of Jonathan in 2015, and it will be worse if it appears that the VP himself is throwing his hat into the ring. But for a PDP governor who may nurse ambitions for a term in 2015, goodwill of the Villa is absolutely vital, and every move he makes henceforth will be interpreted in that context.

In the midst of all these boobytraps, the new Governor has to find a way around even more potent minefields. The most dangerous of these is the persistence of the ethno-religious hostility in the state. Bishop Kukah’s homily at Yakowa’s funeral should be read very carefully by those looking for clues that the north and south, Muslims and Christians have a future in a peaceful state. It was soothing and reassuring in parts, and provocative in parts. Even for a pitch at rallying a people who have lost a major asset, the rabble rousing and pointed insinuations which suggest that Muslims are still the enemy was unbecoming of the standing of Bishop Kukah. Innuendoes and vague references to shadowy enemies will not do justice to the memory of a man whose life was shaped by God using Muslims and Christian hands.

An all-inclusive democratic process which reduces the dangerous gaps that endanger all Muslims and Christians in Kaduna State will be difficult to attain when you hear of some of Bishop Kukah’s homily. That homily should keep Governor Yero on his toes, among many other good advise. He needs prayers and courage to find a way out of the cynicism and doubt that Kaduna State and the nation will know permanent peace.